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Jul. 10th, 2005 10:15 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
a_t_rainAm I the only one who is not expecting massive numbers of Harry's acquaintances to die in the next two books? I was reading somebody's list of predicted deaths today -- which included Dumbledore, McGonagall, Snape, Flitwick, Trelawney, Tonks, Hagrid, Dean, Parvati, Seamus, Molly, Bill, Fleur, Susan, Justin, Neville, Luna, Kingsley, Moody, Mrs. Figg, Dobby, Firenze, and the entire Dursley family, plus about twenty others -- and by the time I reached the end of the list, I was just thinking "BWUH?" I mean, I can't even conceive of the sort of shift in the tone and mood of the series that it would take to pull something like that off.
In GoF and OotP, we've seen ten deaths, if you consider the Dementor's Kiss to be death (I do). The Riddle family, Frank Bryce, Bertha Jorkins, Bartemius Crouch Senior and Junior, Cedric Diggory, Broderick Bode, and Sirius Black. What really strikes me about that list is that four-fifths of them are people we don't care about. (OK, there are a few Crouch-fans who might beg to differ, but really, only two of these deaths were set up to have any kind of emotional impact.)
Now that the wizarding world is officially at war, it's reasonable to expect the body count to grow -- but what I don't think will grow is the proportion of deaths we care about to the ones that don't. I'm tentatively predicting about twenty to twenty-five deaths in HBP and Book Seven combined -- but I think that at most, three or four might be characters we've gotten to know and love, one or two will be unlovable characters who get a big redemptive moment at the end, and the rest will be bad guys, good guys we're not particularly attached to, and walk-ons.
The way I see it, readers have a certain, finite, amount of emotional capital invested in the story at this point. When JKR decides to "spend" that capital on a character death, there has to be a payoff. If she squanders it -- say, by killing off half a dozen beloved characters in rapid succession, without taking the time to make those deaths have impact -- she'll eventually go bankrupt: readers won't care any more.
JKR knows this -- everything she's said about Sirius' death suggests as much -- and I don't think she's going to go around killing developed characters just to set the mood and drive home the fact that we're at war. If an Auror needs to get the chop for plot reasons, it'll be Dawlish or Williamson rather than Tonks. (Tonks may well die -- I'm actually rather worried about her -- but there would have to be a bigger reason in terms of the larger story arc -- say, her death really shakes Harry up and makes him question whether he wants to be an Auror.)
Just for the heck of it, my picks for the deaths we're going to care about are Dumbledore, Firenze, Snape, Ron, and Peter, but I wouldn't be surprised to find out I'm wrong about some or all of these. I do think, however, that I've got the numbers about right.
Unrelated addendum: I realize people are starting to post spoilers. I'd still consider them rumors at this point -- I know bookstore clerks often sneak a peek in advance 'cos I used to be one, but at the same time, people also post deliberate hoaxes. That said, I'm exerting all the willpower I possess not to look, and I'd really prefer for everybody on the f-list to cut and warn if they're going to reference them, even obliquely. (As in, not saying what the rumor is but remarking that so-and-so would be interested, or such-and-such might result if it's true.) Thanks.
In GoF and OotP, we've seen ten deaths, if you consider the Dementor's Kiss to be death (I do). The Riddle family, Frank Bryce, Bertha Jorkins, Bartemius Crouch Senior and Junior, Cedric Diggory, Broderick Bode, and Sirius Black. What really strikes me about that list is that four-fifths of them are people we don't care about. (OK, there are a few Crouch-fans who might beg to differ, but really, only two of these deaths were set up to have any kind of emotional impact.)
Now that the wizarding world is officially at war, it's reasonable to expect the body count to grow -- but what I don't think will grow is the proportion of deaths we care about to the ones that don't. I'm tentatively predicting about twenty to twenty-five deaths in HBP and Book Seven combined -- but I think that at most, three or four might be characters we've gotten to know and love, one or two will be unlovable characters who get a big redemptive moment at the end, and the rest will be bad guys, good guys we're not particularly attached to, and walk-ons.
The way I see it, readers have a certain, finite, amount of emotional capital invested in the story at this point. When JKR decides to "spend" that capital on a character death, there has to be a payoff. If she squanders it -- say, by killing off half a dozen beloved characters in rapid succession, without taking the time to make those deaths have impact -- she'll eventually go bankrupt: readers won't care any more.
JKR knows this -- everything she's said about Sirius' death suggests as much -- and I don't think she's going to go around killing developed characters just to set the mood and drive home the fact that we're at war. If an Auror needs to get the chop for plot reasons, it'll be Dawlish or Williamson rather than Tonks. (Tonks may well die -- I'm actually rather worried about her -- but there would have to be a bigger reason in terms of the larger story arc -- say, her death really shakes Harry up and makes him question whether he wants to be an Auror.)
Just for the heck of it, my picks for the deaths we're going to care about are Dumbledore, Firenze, Snape, Ron, and Peter, but I wouldn't be surprised to find out I'm wrong about some or all of these. I do think, however, that I've got the numbers about right.
Unrelated addendum: I realize people are starting to post spoilers. I'd still consider them rumors at this point -- I know bookstore clerks often sneak a peek in advance 'cos I used to be one, but at the same time, people also post deliberate hoaxes. That said, I'm exerting all the willpower I possess not to look, and I'd really prefer for everybody on the f-list to cut and warn if they're going to reference them, even obliquely. (As in, not saying what the rumor is but remarking that so-and-so would be interested, or such-and-such might result if it's true.) Thanks.
