(no subject)

[a_t_rain]

Am I the only one who is not expecting massive numbers of Harry's acquaintances to die in the next two books? I was reading somebody's list of predicted deaths today -- which included Dumbledore, McGonagall, Snape, Flitwick, Trelawney, Tonks, Hagrid, Dean, Parvati, Seamus, Molly, Bill, Fleur, Susan, Justin, Neville, Luna, Kingsley, Moody, Mrs. Figg, Dobby, Firenze, and the entire Dursley family, plus about twenty others -- and by the time I reached the end of the list, I was just thinking "BWUH?" I mean, I can't even conceive of the sort of shift in the tone and mood of the series that it would take to pull something like that off.



In GoF and OotP, we've seen ten deaths, if you consider the Dementor's Kiss to be death (I do). The Riddle family, Frank Bryce, Bertha Jorkins, Bartemius Crouch Senior and Junior, Cedric Diggory, Broderick Bode, and Sirius Black. What really strikes me about that list is that four-fifths of them are people we don't care about. (OK, there are a few Crouch-fans who might beg to differ, but really, only two of these deaths were set up to have any kind of emotional impact.)

Now that the wizarding world is officially at war, it's reasonable to expect the body count to grow -- but what I don't think will grow is the proportion of deaths we care about to the ones that don't. I'm tentatively predicting about twenty to twenty-five deaths in HBP and Book Seven combined -- but I think that at most, three or four might be characters we've gotten to know and love, one or two will be unlovable characters who get a big redemptive moment at the end, and the rest will be bad guys, good guys we're not particularly attached to, and walk-ons.

The way I see it, readers have a certain, finite, amount of emotional capital invested in the story at this point. When JKR decides to "spend" that capital on a character death, there has to be a payoff. If she squanders it -- say, by killing off half a dozen beloved characters in rapid succession, without taking the time to make those deaths have impact -- she'll eventually go bankrupt: readers won't care any more.

JKR knows this -- everything she's said about Sirius' death suggests as much -- and I don't think she's going to go around killing developed characters just to set the mood and drive home the fact that we're at war. If an Auror needs to get the chop for plot reasons, it'll be Dawlish or Williamson rather than Tonks. (Tonks may well die -- I'm actually rather worried about her -- but there would have to be a bigger reason in terms of the larger story arc -- say, her death really shakes Harry up and makes him question whether he wants to be an Auror.)

Just for the heck of it, my picks for the deaths we're going to care about are Dumbledore, Firenze, Snape, Ron, and Peter, but I wouldn't be surprised to find out I'm wrong about some or all of these. I do think, however, that I've got the numbers about right.


Unrelated addendum: I realize people are starting to post spoilers. I'd still consider them rumors at this point -- I know bookstore clerks often sneak a peek in advance 'cos I used to be one, but at the same time, people also post deliberate hoaxes. That said, I'm exerting all the willpower I possess not to look, and I'd really prefer for everybody on the f-list to cut and warn if they're going to reference them, even obliquely. (As in, not saying what the rumor is but remarking that so-and-so would be interested, or such-and-such might result if it's true.) Thanks.

Comments

[ignipes.livejournal.com]

The Riddle family didn't die during GoF or OotP, though. They died years and years ago, right? Before even the first 'war'. I always thought that Tom went back after he became a nasty piece of work and killed them. (Am I remembering what happened in the book incorrectly?)

But otherwise, I agree. I don't think there will be a bloodbath, and it certainly won't be a bloodbath of major characters.

If she squanders it -- say, by killing off half a dozen beloved characters in rapid succession, without taking the time to make those deaths have impact -- she'll eventually go bankrupt: readers won't care any more.

Hehehe. You're probably not a George R.R. Martin fan. But you're right -- most writers don't kill off half a dozen beloved characters in one fell swoop, because most writers can't (or, rather, don't want to) develop secondary characters well enough to take their places.

And, more importantly, JKR has no reason to do anything like that. She's already set the tone of wars in the wizarding world. Maybe it's not as bleak and dark as some fans seem to want, but in JKR's world, major characters die for a reason. Even Cedric was a great big shiny symbol, a catalyst. People will die, but important people will die for important reasons, and all the extras will die because War Sucks.

Or so I say right now. Ask me again this time next week. :)

[a-t-rain.livejournal.com]

The Riddle family didn't die during GoF or OotP, though. They died years and years ago, right? Before even the first 'war'. I always thought that Tom went back after he became a nasty piece of work and killed them. (Am I remembering what happened in the book incorrectly?)

Well, I'd say that they died in GoF, even though they didn't die in the GoF timeline, if that makes sense. We actually see their bodies being found in Chapter One, and it's an important bit of stage-setting for the present-day story even if it's a hop out of chronological order.

Yeah, I guess by that logic, Benjy Fenwick could be said to have died during OotP, but somehow it feels different.

[a-t-rain.livejournal.com]

I consider James and Lily to have died during the first book, BTW.

[ignipes.livejournal.com]

I do consider the entire first Order of the Phoenix as 'dying' during OotP, as far as their effect on the story is concerned. That's when the total hopelessness of the first fight really sunk in for Harry, when Moody go through that little recitation of people who died. (Which, by the way, I totally want to turn into an Edward Gorey/Gashlycrumb Tinies-style poem...but that's probably just me...)

[a-t-rain.livejournal.com]

Hey, why stop with the first Order?

A is for Aberforth, gored by a goat,
H is for Hagrid, poisoned by stoat.
G is for Grawp, who was hit by the Ford,
T is for Tonks, tripped over the Dark Lord.
R is for Remus, punched with some silver...

Oops, that won't work, will it? Yet another reason why our favorite werewolf has to stay alive. Heh.

[tunxeh.livejournal.com]

copperbadge already completed one version of this (http://www.livejournal.com/users/copperbadge/617670.html), with the first three beautifully illustrated by tapedeck.

[a-t-rain.livejournal.com]

Heh. Thanks for the link -- it was great.

[mafdet.livejournal.com]

Now that I think about it...the pattern of deaths through GoF and OOtP seem to be those of either icky people (Barty Jr.) or various spear-carriers, plus ONE "big one" that hits Harry and those around him hard.

Cedric was the big one in GoF. Now while he was not a close friend of Harry, the fact that Cedric was loved by all who knew him and was an utterly blameless, nice kid who just happened to be very unlucky, made an impact.

With Sirius, Harry lost his godfather - the man he hoped he could live with and who he longed to have take the place of his dead real father. I'm sure Sirius' death impacted others, too - especially Remus and Tonks, whose friend and relative he was. But Sirius' death was the one to hit Harry exceptionally hard.

I look to have some minor characters die in HBP, perhaps ones like Parvati Patil or Anthony Goldstein who are nice and all, but aren't really going to make a huge impact on the reader; plus one or maybe two Really Big Ones. Hagrid? Dumbledore? Maybe even - though I doubt this, considering that JKR said he'd be in Book 7 - Remus? *waaah*

[a-t-rain.livejournal.com]

I'm probably running the risk of jinxing myself, but I think Remus is safe for the moment, because it would be hard to write his death without making it seem like a repeat of the same plot line we had with Sirius. Also, I think that as the poster-child for baseless discrimination in the series, he has important symbolic work to do. To me, the only postwar ending that's going to "feel right" is one where he gets his job back.

[mafdet.livejournal.com]

I didn't think of this when I made my last post, but it's also possible Molly could die - that would not only affect Harry deeply, it would affect his adopted family even more.

Is McGonagall a major enough character for her death to be a blow? I know I'm very fond of her character, and she is the Deputy Headmistress at Hogwarts. Her death probably would shake up a lot of people. And while she's strict, she's fond of Harry and he has a lot of respect for her. Plus where could Dumbledore find another Animagus on short notice to teach Transfiguration (if that is a job requirement)? Ah yes, the Pit, where unicorn and Siberian tiger animagi are a dime a dozen. :P

[winding_path]

I think we'll see deaths, quite a few, though I think many will be along the line of "a dozen muggles killed in the street." Named characters, 15-20, characters we care about, no more than 5.

*fingers crossed*

[catkind.livejournal.com]

Yeah, I'm also definitely not expecting a bloodbath. JKR is really quite careful about deaths. She could easily have killed off a lot more walk-ons than she has - most of the deaths have been safely in the past. She didn't kill off a single DE in the MoM battle, where she easily could have. She got all emotional about killing Sirius and Cedric, who were not major characters really - Sirius had quite minimal screentime, however cool he was. As a demonstration of evil torture, floating people in the air so you can see their underwear isn't exactly horrific.

Just for the heck of it, my picks for the deaths we're going to care about are Dumbledore, Firenze, Snape, Ron, and Peter, but I wouldn't be surprised to find out I'm wrong about some or all of these.
That sounds rather plausible. Though I think I'd cut Ron from the list. I really don't think JKR's hard-hearted enough to kill off Ron. I'll vote for the same list but with another Weasley, neither Ron nor Ginny.

[tunxeh.livejournal.com]

I agree with the part about a different Weasley than Ron or Ginny. I'd also add Luna to the list. And I'm not convinced that Snape will die.

[dreamer-marie.livejournal.com]

I don't think that there will be many deaths of people we like, not because JKR is worried about her bank account (at that point she doesn't need to do that anymore till the end of her life, and neither do her children and grandchildren: in a hundred years or so, we're going to have decadent Rowlings doing outrageous and stupid things out of sheer boredom because they don't know what the hell to do with their money).
If there is a reason why there won't be so many deaths, it is because she cares about them herself. If we're upset because Ron dies, imagine what it must be for the person who knows him best, who created him. I mean, she was sick with grief when she killed of Sirius, do you really think she's going to put herself through that again and again just to bring home the fact that there's a war?
Of course, that implies that you trust what she says about herself in her interviews. I'm inclined to believe the fact that she's a decent person, not a mercenary one. But that's just me.

[a-t-rain.livejournal.com]

Yeah, that's pretty much my read of what JKR has said, too. I think she wants to keep the deaths to a bare minimum, and probably will.

[snorkackcatcher]

The estimates sound about right - because JKR is very careful about who she kills off. Although weirdly, I hope that she does apply the axe reasonably liberally to make the point about there being a war on - it felt a little odd that none of the kids actually got themselves killed in the DoM fight, for example.

As for the casualties, I'd substitute Charlie and possibly Percy for Ron as the 'Weasley who gets it' - the former because he's been so marginal to the books so far he's pretty much the Expendable Weasley, the latter because I can see him making up with his family, getting involved and then doing something else completely lacking in common sense.

[a-t-rain.livejournal.com]

Dunno if Percy is exactly lacking in common sense, so much as lacking in the ability to think for himself. I think he'll probably be OK as long as he's taking orders.

I could see Bill or Charlie buying it, though, since they're pretty much bit parts. I hope not -- I hope that if any of the Weasleys die, it's Molly (not that I don't like her, but it's clearly what SHE'D want). However, as I've said, I have a very bad feeling about Ron.

[author-by-night.livejournal.com]

I think, for one thing, that Sirius was the "big death". DD might come close, (and I think his death will happen), but Sirius was like a father.

I think we'll have one more major character death, one or two minor ones, and then a few people we don't know of. And I'm worried about Tonks too - she is NOT in a good position.

As for the "spoilers", probably rumors. I heard one that sounded very unspoilerish, because I wouldn't be surprised. (Won't say what it was though, just in case). But I'm going to be avoiding them.

[a-t-rain.livejournal.com]

I'm actually willing to believe that there are people who genuinely know stuff at this point; I'd be shocked if my former boss hasn't sneaked a peek at the books by now (although, since she's a total Luddite who won't even use a computerized inventory system in her store, I'm sure she hasn't been posting any spoilers to the Net).

Regardless, I'd rather not even know that people are surprised or not-surprised by the rumors, because you can infer a fair bit from that. (Not meant as criticism of you; I should have been clearer about that.)

[nineveh-uk.livejournal.com]

Tonks might as well have “canon-fodder” tattooed on her forehead. She’s nice and clever and I like her a lot, but she exists to be a nice, clever Auror and introduce us to the concept of the Metamorphmagus for later plot twists. She’s gonna die.

[a-t-rain.livejournal.com]

I don't see how that follows. Yes, she's reasonably expendable as characters go, but there are plenty of likeable yet expendable second-string characters -- Flitwick, Sprout, Bill, Charlie, and Kingsley all come to mind -- and I'd be surprised if JKR ended up killing them all. I have a feeling one of them may die if she needs to make the readers a bit sad but not devastated, but you can only do that so many times.

Actually, I'd say Tonks has "mentor" tattooed all over her forehead -- she's an approachable young adult in Harry's chosen profession, and interestingly, she's introduced with precisely the same visual imagery as Lupin. It would seem odd for JKR to kill off a character who's basically been set up as Harry's bridge into the adult world.

[(Anonymous)]

Think you're right...
my picks for the deaths we're going to care about are Dumbledore, Firenze, Snape, Ron, and Peter. Those sections of the fandom who haven't read Runnning Close to the Ground might not care about Peter :-) And I suspect there might be a few people weeping for Lucius Malfoy... (What do you reckon about Draco, by the way? Think she'll kill him off?) Why do you think Firenze's going to die?

I'm worried about Tonks, too, (and her family).

[dolabellae.livejournal.com]

Oops. That was me. Forgot to log on.

[a-t-rain.livejournal.com]

Those sections of the fandom who haven't read Runnning Close to the Ground might not care about Peter :-)

Well, Peter is the one Death Eater whom I'm fairly confident JKR is setting up for a Big Redemptive Death Scene, so I have a feeling everybody else will care about it after it happens. (I'm not expecting an RCttG-style ending, because you really have to set the story up from Peter's PoV to make an audience accept that sort of thing, but I think he'll have his moment.)

And I suspect there might be a few people weeping for Lucius Malfoy...

Yeah, but I don't think that's quite the reaction JKR is expecting from the majority of her audience :-) I have a feeling Lucius may be slated for Azkaban rather than death, anyway. As for Draco, I'm honestly not sure -- realistically, I can see him getting himself killed while playing at being a Death Eater, but at the same time I can't shake off the feeling that there would be something a bit ... mean-spirited about it, unless she sets it up very carefully? Cheering when Draco loses the House Cup or gets hexed on the train is one thing; cheering because a seventeen-year-old is dead is quite another -- and hard-core fans aside, Draco is a character most readers love to hate.

Why do you think Firenze's going to die?

Just a feeling. If I had to put it into words, I'd say it's because he can't go back to the forest and he doesn't belong in civilization.

[dolabellae.livejournal.com]

Big Redemptive Death Scene would definitely do it, your right. And yes, it does seem very likely...

I have a feeling Lucius may be slated for Azkaban rather than death, anyway Yes, that's certainly possible - though if the Ministry don't get the Dementors back on side, it's far better than he deserves... I think Bellatrix will die, though - and yes, I'm sure we're not meant to be upset about that!

I completely agree with you about Draco. Mind you, I think I feel the same about the Death Eaters in the first war - or Snape's lot, at least, who can't have been long out of school...

[riibu.livejournal.com]

Sounds plausible. I think you may be right here.

OK, there are a few Crouch-fans who might beg to differ
Thank you. :) IMHO, both Crouch Sr and Jr had a nasty fate, somewhat touching, but I know what you mean when you talk about emotional impact.

[dolorous-ett.livejournal.com]

I tend to agree with the thought behind this post, if not all the people you selected - I think JKR has invested too much in Ron, to begin with.

I must say, though, that I find the fandom's current obession with character death a little off-putting. I do understand the thought behind it - I know that if you're a diehard Narcissa/Sprout writer and JKR kills off Narcissa in a tragic cosmetic explosion it must be pretty tough to know your source of inspiration has gone up in smoke and there's nothing you can do about it 'cos it's canon... but personally I'm looking forward to all the new stuff out there - the stuff we could never even have imagined.

That said, I nourish a secret hope that Filch will beat Lucius Malfoy to death with his horrible, stinking old mop. Sorry, Lucius fans, but every girl's entitled to a dream, and this one's mine.

[dolorous-ett.livejournal.com]

I have absolutely no idea what caused all that underlining. None whatsoever. Sorry.

[a-t-rain.livejournal.com]

That said, I nourish a secret hope that Filch will beat Lucius Malfoy to death with his horrible, stinking old mop. Sorry, Lucius fans, but every girl's entitled to a dream, and this one's mine.

And then sparks will fly out of the mop, and Filch will dance down the corridor singing, "MAGIC! I can do MAGIC!"

I like that dream :)

[dolorous-ett.livejournal.com]

But I like your version better.

[persephone-kore.livejournal.com]

I'm with you on the basic premise if not in all specific predictions, but I get detail-type predictions right more by accident than anything else. (Not to mention just HOW LONG after OotP it took me to look back at my chameleons and realize they were essentially Disillusioned.)

[moriaravenswood.livejournal.com]

I think you're probably right-- we'll see a few sympathetic, familiar characters die (five or less), and a few named characters (between five and ten), and maybe a dozen or more unnamed characters (btw, this is off-topic, but I REALLY hope JKR introduces a sympathetic muggle. The only one I can think of so far is the ice-lolly lady). I think Sirius' death was meant to be the worst one in the series, so hopefully Ron will make it.

However, there's one way I might be wrong-- that is, if Rowling goes further with the death theme. Things like 'death is the next great adventure,' the whispering behind the veil, etc. Then I can see her killing Ron, Harry's love interest, and perhaps even Harry.

The ones I'm most definitely expecting to go (besides Voldemort and Bellatrix) are Peter and Snape. With Peter, I'm hoping for a nice, heartwrenching, yet still believable redemption scene; with Snape, I'm expecting him to go out in style-- a noble, intentional, level-headed sacrifice of some sort, possibly accompanied by some last piece of snark.

I think we'll have a few more deaths that will make an impact, but as to that list you read-- maybe it was 'everyone I think MIGHT die'?

[a-t-rain.livejournal.com]

I think we'll have a few more deaths that will make an impact, but as to that list you read-- maybe it was 'everyone I think MIGHT die'?

No, it seemed to be a list of actual predictions; I would have considered it pretty much on the mark if it had been a list of possible deaths.

Agree with you about the sympathetic Muggles. The Grangers sound nice enough, but we really don't see anything of them, do we?

[hannahmarder.livejournal.com]

You aren't the only one, ATR. I have never subscribed to the 'bloodbath' theory. Yes, there will be some deaths, but these will mainly be, as you say, minor characters or unknown Muggles. A few important characters will die, but I don't think any of the principle children will go (ie. not Ron). My money is on (over the next two books) Dumbledore, Flitwick, Arthur Weasley, Bill or Charlie Weasley, Snape (sob), Peter, another Order member (but not Lupin) and a principal DE or two (Bella/Rodolphus/Lucius etc.). Well, and Voldemort. I doubt that he'll win or be transformed into a good guy, so he'll have to expire somehow or other. Plus as many very minor/ unknown characters.

I'm interested in why you think Ron will die. I know it's quite a popular theory, but I just wondered what your particular reasons were.

[a-t-rain.livejournal.com]

Ron is probably the one on the list that I'm least sure about. I think one of the six principle kids will probably die, but I can imagine it being any of the others, especially Harry. However, I'd say Ron's the one who has had his death most clearly foreshadowed, with stuff like the chess game in the first book, his constant joking about his own Impending Doom in Trelawney's classes, his "If you want to kill Harry, you'll have to kill us too" line, etc. And honestly, as horrible as this sounds, Ron has at least had the luxury of having an ordinary, happy childhood and adolescence, so it wouldn't seem as dreadfully unfair as Harry dying before he's had a chance to have a normal life or a family of his own.

I hope I'm wrong and we don't lose any of the kids, but I'd rather prepare myself for the possibility and then be pleasantly surprised.

[hannahmarder.livejournal.com]

I hope I'm wrong and we don't lose any of the kids, but I'd rather prepare myself for the possibility and then be pleasantly surprised.
That sounds like a sensible policy. I always hopefully think that the foreshadowing is JKR playing around with us - she does rather like to let fans get in a worry about things that she has no intention of doing. I remember her being very mysterious before GoF and letting everyone think Ron was going to be the one that died - plus assuring us it would be a major character - then it turned out to be someone we had barely heard of before that book.

In a way, I would think that the foreshadowing for Ron would be evidence against him dying, and in favour of someone else (e.g. Hermione, though I reckon all of the trio are safe) dying. I always remember that Ron is based on JKR's best friend, which I think makes it unlikely that she'll kill him. Plus there's the argument that has death would serve little narrative purpose (not my argument, but I've jumped merrily on the bandwagon). I don't think for a minute that she'll kill Harry. JKR might like to make out that she might, but I just can't see her doing it.

Thanks for your thoughts - and I promise not to post any spoilers. I'm avoiding them myself!

[yma2.livejournal.com]

Good point. I don't think we'll see massive amounts of character death either, though I hope none of my faveorite characters gets it. I think it's just that no one really has a clue who's going to die! The only one that looks remotely 'likely' to me is Dumbledore. All the others... OK... maybe Peter but that's it!
I might not be on LJ in a while, I'm thinking of stopping myself going on the internet after Friday 'cos I don't wanna be spoiled and I don't recon I'll get a HP book before the Monday. If then!